What does a world of 8bn mean for us and the planet?

Today’s release of the UN World Population Prospects 2022 report coincides with the day it’s predicted the population of the planet will reach eight billion for the first time. With an ongoing climate crisis and food and water resources already struggling to keep pace, we look at what the milestone might mean for us and the planet.

When King Charles III – who celebrated his 74th birthday on Monday – was born in 1948, the world population was around 2.5 billion. It has doubled since 1974, and it’s just 12 years after the seven billionth child was born in Bangladesh. Most of the growth, around 700 m people, came from Asia. In 2023, India’s population of 1.4 billion is set to pass that of China, which has long been the most-populous nation on Earth. China’s birth rate is now below that of the United States. 

The same report estimates the world population could peak at 10.4 billion by 2080. Much of the growth to come will be in sub-Saharan Africa, with just four nations (Nigeria, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania) contributing a further 1 billion people by that date. Much of the increase is not due to fertility rates, which are falling across the globe, but extended lifespans. We are seeing more centenarians than ever before. The population will then start to decline over the following hundred years.

UN head, Secretary General António Guterres, said: ‘This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates. At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet.’

As the population continues to grow, it’s likely to put increasing pressure on the planet’s natural resources, risking further water and food scarcity. Unless we carefully consider our consumption, pollution and overfishing could become the norm.

In addition, the climate crisis could lead to one of the largest mass migrations in human history, as rising seas inundate major coastal population centres, such as Lagos, Nigeria, and deserts are made from vast areas of the Indian subcontinent. This would threaten regional security as countries risk going to war for space and resources.

Food production will need to be increased, as space available for agriculture shrinks, but this risks worsening environmental degradation through deforestation, the loss of mangroves, or expanding into pristine wildernesses vital to wildlife.

The UN estimates food production needs to jump 70% from 2009 levels by 2050, without any easy or obvious solutions presenting themselves. Instead, it’s likely to require small changes in every step of food production, from the maintenance of soil health to how much we as individuals consume.

The pressure on resources is likely to be greatest in those sub-Saharan nations where populations are growing fastest. They are also some of the countries most at risk from the impact of the climate crisis who are looking to richer nations of the global north for financial help to cover loss and damage with increasing urgency.

However, relatively simple actions, such as improving Africa’s road infrastructure, could significantly reduce food wastage during transportation. With 77% of agricultural land used to produce meat, any reduction in its consumption would also have a huge impact on helping the planet support its eight billion residents. So while reaching this milestone should be another clarion call for action, there are ways we can prevent it becoming an emergency siren.

Photo by Joseph Chan