The 1.5 degree goal is still within reach, say researchers

The Paris Climate Agreement goal is still within reach, a new study suggests.

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding treaty that was signed by 196 countries at COP21 in Paris. The goal of the treaty is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.

In order to explore and plan for possible futures, the climate research community uses forecasts of how the future might evolve based on factors such as projected greenhouse gas emissions and different possible climate policies.

The most commonly used scenarios, called the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), were developed by the IPCC starting in 2005. 

For their study, the researchers started with a total of 1,311 climate scenarios and compared the scenarios to the projected 2005-2050 fossil fuel and industry carbon dioxide emissions growth rates most consistent with real-life observations from 2005-2020.

The number of scenarios that most closely matched up to data from the past 15 years and subsequent emissions projections ranged from less than 100 to almost 500, depending upon the method applied.

These scenarios represent what futures are plausible if current trends continue and countries adopt the climate policies they have already announced to reduce carbon emissions.

However, Pielke Jr, lead author of the study warned that because we haven’t updated our IPCC scenarios for many years, there are also some futures that are plausible but haven’t yet been envisioned,

For example, renewable energy has become more affordable and, thus, more common faster than expected.

Climate scenarios also tend to overestimate economic growth, especially in poorer countries, according to Burgess, assistant professor of environmental studies.

Relying on not only outdated scenarios but scenarios that are no longer plausible, for research and policy has big implications for how we think about, act, and spend money on climate change issues, the authors said.

‘There’s a need for these scenarios to be updated more frequently. Researchers may be using a 2005 scenario, but we need a 2022 perspective,’ said Pielke Jr.

‘You’re going to have better policies if you have a more accurate understanding of the problem, whatever the political implications are for one side or the other.’

However, the authors highlight that 2 C of warming will still take a dramatic toll on the planet.

‘We’re getting close to our two-degree target, but we definitely have a lot more work to do if we’re going to get to 1.5,’ said Burgess.